The Senate GOP is hemorrhaging support for the war, and it is a fair question of whether Bush can keep his support above the veto-proof level for the next 3 weeks until Congress recesses until September. There is also the chance that Reid and Pelosi will force the Congress to remain in session and forego the August recess.
It now seems almost certain that the Congress will in the next three weeks and if not then certainly in September vote in veto-proof numbers to retreat from Iraq regardless of conditions on the ground. Military leaders have noticed it for weeks. Note the recent comments by General Lynch and others to the media that a large-scale pullout by March 2008 or any date in the next few years makes no sense from their perspective (winning the war). This is the attempt of the military to indirectly say that they agree with the President that we should not run away from Iraq.
It will fail because even if Petraeus stood up in September and said "George Bush is right, you are wrong. You are defeatists, if we leave Iraq it will not get better, it will get worse, and terrorists will flock to Iraq and terrorism will spread from Iraq in a cancer unstoppable save by another invasion," the Congress is still going to vote for declaring defeat and leaving.
The generals have made it clear that the ridiculous fantasy of a reduced US troop number will not result in more violence is just that, a ridiculous fantasy; Senator Reid has responded by saying that General Petraeus is incompetent and out of touch. The General is indeed out of touch. He is out of touch with Washington, where the outcome of the war has already been decided: The United States has lost, if it was time to sue for peace we would be. Since there's no one to sue for peace, we're just going to leave.
To hell with the genocide and ethnic cleansing that will follow wherever there is a mixed Shiite-Sunni population. We already saw what happened when the US largely withdrew from Baghdad in 2005: the Mahdi Army ethnically cleansed large parts of Sunni Baghdad and only stopped when the surge brought US troops back in.
The Iraqi government knows what is going on. After last weekend it urged all citizens to procure firearms and use them in their own self-defense. Maliki is obviously hoping that when the US leaves and violence explodes, enough armed citizens will join government set-up local militias than joining the Mahdi or al-Qaeda or Sunni insurgents.
When the Iraqi government inevitably collapses and the center of the country turns into an Arab Somalia, when the Shiite south becomes an independent state (possibly not an Iranian puppet, as the Badr Brigade and Sistani are against Iran absorbing southern Iraq), when Turkey invades Kurdistan, when Iraq-based terrorists start attacking Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, when Saudi Arabia starts organizing teams of volunteer jihadis to go into Iraq and attack the terrorists, where will Senator Reid be? Senator Reid will be in retirement or dead. Speaker Pelosi will probably still be in Congress, blaming the United States and refusing to even consider sending soldiers back.
The Iraq War is lost. Richard Lugar lost it. Pete Domenici lost it. Donald Rumsfeld lost it. General Casey and Abizaid lost it. George Bush at least tried, far too late, to salvage it with General Petraeus.
The Democratic Party wants us to lose it, and they've lost it for us.
The "netroots" want us to lose it, and they've lost it for us. They have raised so much money and put so much pressure on the Democratic leadership that the Blue Dog Democrats seem to have dropped off the face of the earth.
And who really lost the Iraq War? The American people and the conservative blogosphere. The American people allowed a blatantly transparent campaign of defeatism and anti-American destroy their spirit. The American people did not sour on the war because that was the correct thing to do. People like Michael Yon and General Petraeus have made it clear that we are fighting an enemy whose barbarism is purely in the first pantheon of history's monsters. Yet instead of responding with the righteous fury that Americans have in the past to such foes, we have allowed ourselves to be convinced by the despicable lies and statements of the liberal political machine.
But how did the conservative blogosphere lose the war? First of all, remember how the conservative blogs are always saying how the liberal blogs are better organized for political activism? That's right. They raise money. They take their activism off-line. They build off-line organizations.
Does the right do this? No. They sit, in their pajamas - isn't it fucking sad how their big claim to fame is a single disparaging comment about them made three years ago? You won the pajamas, guess who won the war? The other side, idiots - and pontificate about how George Bush betrayed them and the GOP needs punishing and all this other nonsense - how stupid is Instapundit? How stupid are the people who e-mail him? Pretty damn stupid. They go on their National Review cruises. They wax nostalgic for the day when "Europe wakes up" to the Muslim threat or some other idiocy.
Do they do anything that would give them influence over the GOP? No. They don't raise money. They don't make phone calls. They don't organize people. Would Richard Lugar or Voinovich or Domenici have abandoned the president in the past week if the conservative blogosphere had said "Abandon the war and you'll get blown out of the water in your primary" and been in a position where that threat was credible? The "netroots" can.
In the end, the ultimate responsibility for losing the Iraq War falls on men like that crusty old fool William Buckley and others, unable to see past their noses. So you defeated the immigration bill. So you've made some very small inroads on pork. Guess what? The returns didn't justify the investment. You turned the GOP completely off to the conservative blogosphere, with the exception of Fred Thompson.
Fred Thompson isn't President. He doesn't control the Congressional GOP. He's a candidate for President.
Guess what you dumb fucks, while you were lambasting Bush and the GOP and talking about punishing them, the liberals were busy outflanking you on the war. Richard Lugar can look out and see a vast political machine operating against the war on the Left independent of the Democratic Party. When he looks on the right, what does he see? Nothing.
The right-wing blogs are uniformly made up of short-sighted idiots. They have allowed the GOP to stand alone on the war, and the GOP is not powerful enough to do that. Good job assholes, you stood by and did nothing while Kos and MoveOn, along with Reid and the rest, were pulling the rug out from under our feet.